Modern War Games are mathematical modeling techniques that deal with theoretical nuclear situations. It is a system of analysis based on quantitative values allowing one to determine the best move for all players involved.
The RAND corporation was assembled by the Air Force to run these war games and predict what the Soviet Union would do during the cold war. In their games, they had to “Think Red,” which at the time meant assuming that the enemy would always choose conflict over cooperation, because of the rationale presented by the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
THE PRISONERS DILEMMA – is a situation in which two accomplices in a crime are caught, though they cannot be tried without proper testimony. As such, the prisoners are separated and each given the opportunity to betray the other. If one betrays the other while the other remains silent, he walks free and his partner gets a long sentence. If they betray one another they get mid-sized sentences, and if neither accuses the other they both get short sentences. Thus, the most rational decision is to betray, because that way the prisoner avoids the worst possible outcome–the longest prison sentence.
A diagram of the Prisoner's Dilemma -- inside of each box are hypothetical jail sentences for each prisoner
It presented a situation of conflict vs. cooperation, wherein cooperation would be refusing to squeal, and conflict was squealing. The prisoner’s dilemma focuses on the notion of minimizing the prisoner’s losses in a situation where he cannot maximize his gains. The prisoner should choose to betray the other in order to minimize his losses, placing conflict before cooperation.
The prisoner’s dilemma was the basis of game theory during the Cold War. Although ideally both sides would disarm, but neither wants to risk being betrayed. Cooperation would involve nuclear disarmament, which would present the possibility of the worst possible outcome–nuclear annihilation. Hence, once again, conflict prevails.
“If you can’t maximize your gains by disarming, then minimize your losses with a nuclear buildup.” 97
The notion of choosing conflict over cooperation to benefit oneself made people distrustful of other peoples — the effects of which were covered in The Trap.
Liang believed that this concept of self-interest and paranoia embedded its way in to the psyche of the individual affection human relations. Applying game theory to human relations, he explains that the modern family is a dark arena where members are playing manipulative selfish games with one another. All the family members are always trying to infer the intentions of the other. Politicians adapted these ideas, focusing on maximizing personal advantage, speaking of public service but acting out of self-interest.
Some Questions
When war games were used during the Vietnam War, the numbers were unable to accurately predict the outcome because it disregarded several factors such as moral and human emotion. Do you think that game theory can be applied to human relations? Can human relations be analyzed on a mathematical basis?
John Nash claims in the movie that everyone must act selfishly for a society based on self-interest to work smoothly. Because when someone does a selfless act for another person they can no longer remain separate. Do you think it is possible for a society to exist where everyone acts only out of self-interest?
Videos
Dilbert & The Prisoner’s Dilemma
BY MAGGIE MAI AND KENGO TSUTUSMI
